Meet our group members at EGU 2015!

Following is a list of oral and poster presentations by our group members. Hope to see you all in Vienna!

 

  1. Monday, 13 Apr

SSS0.7

Soils in fragile environments: challenges and opportunities for soil and water conservation for sustainable land and water management

Orals / Mon, 13 Apr, 08:30–12:15 / Room B13

10:45–11:00 EGU2015-11561

Short term and long term impact of vegetation recovery on seasonal streamflows

Noemí Lana-Renault, Derek Karssenberg, Mark Bierkens, and M.Pilar Serrano Muela

 

HS3.3

Open Source Computing in Hydrology PICO Session

PICO  / Mon, 13 Apr, 13:30–17:00

EGU2015-9327

PyCatch: catchment modelling in the PCRaster framework

Derek Karssenberg, Noemí Lana-Renault, and Oliver Schmitz

 

HS3.1

HydroInformatics: computational intelligence, systems analysis, optimisation

Posters

/ Attendance Mon, 13 Apr, 17:30–19:00 / Red Posters

R151 EGU2015-9018

A framework for integrated, multi-scale model construction and uncertainty assessment

Oliver Schmitz, Jean-Luc de Kok, Kor de Jong, and Derek Karssenberg

 

  1. Tuesday, 14 Apr

HS10.7

Quantifying the resilience in coupled ecohydrological, biogeochemical and social systems under environmental and anthropogenic change

Orals / Tue, 14 Apr, 08:30–10:00 / Room R8

09:45–10:00 EGU2015-2490

Virtual water trade in the Roman Mediterranean

Brian Dermody, Rens van Beek, Elijah Meeks, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Walter Scheidel, Ype van der Velde, Marc Bierkens, Martin Wassen, and Stefan Dekker

 

HS6.5

Assimilation of hydrological remote sensing data

Orals / Tue, 14 Apr, 10:30–12:00 / Room R8

10:30–10:45 EGU2015-5240

Correction of Real-Time Global Precipitation Measurement with multi-sensor satellite observations

Niko Wanders, Ming Pan, and Eric Wood

 

Droughts in the Anthropocene

Posters

/ Attendance Tue, 14 Apr, 17:30–19:00 / Red Posters

R21 EGU2015-3358

Human and climate impacts on the 21st century hydrological drought

Yoshihide Wada and Niko Wanders

 

HS2.4.2

Large scale hydrology

Orals  / Tue, 14 Apr, 13:30–17:00 / Room R11

15:45–16:00 EGU2015-5642

Reconstruction of groundwater depletion using a global scale groundwater model

Inge de Graaf, Rens van Beek, Edwin Sutanudjaja, Yoshi Wada, and Marc Bierkens

16:45–17:00 EGU2015-7198

Hyper-resolution global modelling: what’s next?

Marc Bierkens

 

ESSI2.13/SSS1.8

Free and Open Source Software (FOSS) for Geoinformatics and Geosciences (co-organized)

Orals / Tue, 14 Apr, 13:30–17:15 / Room R14

17:00–17:15 EGU2015-7148

eWaterCycle: Building an operational global Hydrological forecasting system based on standards and open source software

Niels Drost, Marc Bierkens, Gennadii Donchyts, Nick van de Giesen, Stef Hummel, Rolf Hut, Arno Kockx, Maarten van Meersbergen, Edwin Sutanudjaja, Martin Verlaan, Albrecht Weerts, and Hessel Winsemius

 

NH9.13

Global and continental scale risk assessment for natural hazards: methods and practice

Posters

/ Attendance Tue, 14 Apr, 17:30–19:00 / Blue Posters

B876  EGU2015-15248

Global operational hydrological forecasts through eWaterCycle

Nick van de Giesen, Marc Bierkens, Gennadii Donchyts, Niels Drost, Rolf Hut, and Edwin Sutanudjaja

 

  1. Wednesday, 15 Apr

HS6.4

Remote sensing of soil moisture

Orals / Wed, 15 Apr, 08:30–12:00 / Room R

11:45–12:00 EGU2015-8627

Improved large-scale hydrological modelling through the assimilation of streamflow and downscaled satellite soil moisture observations.

Patricia López López, Niko Wanders, Edwin Sutanudjaja, Luigi Renzullo, Geert Sterk, Jaap Schellekens, and Marc Bierkens

 

Posters

/ Attendance Wed, 15 Apr, 17:30–19:00 / Red Posters

R108 EGU2015-7371

Soil Moisture derivation from the multi-frequency sensor AMSR-2

Robert Parinussa, Anne de Nijs, Richard de Jeu, Thomas Holmes, Wouter Dorigo, Niko Wanders, and Jaap Schellekens

 

HS2.4.3

Hydrological change: Regional hydrological behaviour under transient climate and land use conditions

Orals / Wed, 15 Apr, 13:30–17:00 / Room R8

16:15–16:30 EGU2015-5799

Simulating the impact of climate, land use and human water use on the hydrological system over the period 1850-2100 using PCR-GLOBWB

Joyce Bosmans, Rens van Beek, and Marc Bierkens

 

HS2.4.2

Large scale hydrology

Posters

/ Attendance Wed, 15 Apr, 17:30–19:00 / Red Posters

R12 EGU2015-2086

Extensive validation of the global water resources model PCR-GLOBWB 2.0: the added value of human impacts

Stefanie Peßenteiner, Rens Van Beek, Edwin Sutanudjaja, and Marc Bierkens

R25 EGU2015-8003

A high resolution (1 km) groundwater model for Indonesia

Edwin Sutanudjaja, Jarno Verkaik, Inge de Graaf, Rens van Beek, Gilles Erkens, and Marc Bierkens

 

  1. Thursday, 16 Apr

HS4.6/NH1.2

Operational forecasting and warning systems for natural hazards: challenges and innovation (co-organized)

PICO  / Thu, 16 Apr, 08:30–12:00

EGU2015-3018

eWaterCycle: A global operational hydrological forecasting model

Nick van de Giesen, Marc Bierkens, Gennadii Donchyts, Niels Drost, Rolf Hut, and Edwin Sutanudjaja

 

AS3.8

Air Pollution Modelling

Orals  / Thu, 16 Apr, 08:30–12:00 / Room B15

09:45–10:00 EGU2015-8938

Evaluating the effect of human activity patterns on air pollution exposure using an integrated field-based and agent-based modelling framework

Oliver Schmitz, Rob M. J. Beelen, Merijn P. de Bakker, and Derek Karssenberg

 

SSS9.11/EOS10/GM4.4

Geoheritage, Geodiversity and Landscapes: a key issue for present and future studies (co-organized)

Orals  / Thu, 16 Apr, 08:30–12:00 / 13:30–17:00 / Room B5

16:45–17:00  EGU2015-5243

Enhancing fieldwork learning using blended learning, GIS and remote supervision

Wouter A Marra, Koko Alberti, and Derek Karssenberg

 

SPM2.23

HyperHydro – hyper-resolution global hydrological modelling (by invitation only)

Convener: Edwin Sutanudjaja  | Co-Convener: M.B. Bierkens

Thu, 16 Apr, 17:30–19:00 / Room R3

 

HS2.4.3

Hydrological change: Regional hydrological behaviour under transient climate and land use conditions

Posters

/ Attendance Thu, 16 Apr, 17:30–19:00 / Red Posters

R63 EGU2015-11014

Climate change effects on runoff in the Ötztal glacierized catchments

René R. Wijngaard, Kay Helfricht, Klaus Schneeberger, Matthias Huttenlau, Katrin Schneider, and Marc F.P. Bierkens

 

  1. Friday, 17 Apr

HS8.2.9

Hydrogeology of coastal zones: processes, consequences and potentials

Orals / Fri, 17 Apr, 08:30–12:00 / Room G10

09:45–10:00 EGU2015-10150

Modeling Changing Morphology and Density Dependent Groundwater Flow in a Dynamic Environment: case study

Sebastian Huizer, Marc Bierkens, and Gualbert Oude Essink

 

HS2.4.1

Hydrological extremes: from droughts to floods

Orals  / Fri, 17 Apr, 13:30–17:00 / Room R4

16:00–16:15 EGU2015-4083

Global hydrological droughts in the 21st century under a changing hydrological regime

Henny A.J. Van Lanen, Niko Wanders, and Yoshihide Wada

 

HS2.3.4

Water quality at the catchment scale: measuring and modeling of nutrients, sediment and eutrophication impacts

Posters

/ Attendance Fri, 17 Apr, 10:30–12:00 / Red Posters

R1 EGU2015-9713

Modelling global nitrogen export to ground and surface water from natural ecosystems: impact of N deposition, climate, and CO2 concentration

Maarten Braakhekke, Karin Rebel, Stefan Dekker, Rens van Beek, Marc Bierkens, Ben Smith, and Martin Wassen

A high-resolution global groundwater model

Inge de Graaf , PhD student in our group has published a paper about a global 6-arcminute one-layer groundwater model. The model is made in MODFLOW and is forced with recharge and surface water levels from our global hydrological model. In this publication a steady state global groundwater depth map has been made, but in subsequent work Inge will provide an updated 5-arcminute two-layer version and transient runs, including the effects of groundwater abstractions.

The reference:

De Graaf,  I.E.M., E.H. Sutanudjaja, L.P.H. van Beek, and M.F.P. Bierkens, 2015. high-resolution global-scale groundwater model. Hydrology Earth System Science, 19, 823-837.

The paper was highlighted at the EGU website:

Presentation1

A nice picture of the global groundwater table:

Long-term average groundwater depth (m below surface)

Long-term average groundwater depth (m below surface)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

WRI Launches Global Flood Analyzer – based on model runs with PCR-GLOBWB

 

The World Resources Institute has launced the Aqueduct Global Flood Analyzer v1.0. It the first-ever public analysis of current and future river-flood risks worldwide.

The Analyzer estimates current and 2030 values for potential exposed GDP, affected population and urban damage from river floods for every state, country, and major river basin in the world.

The tool is based on a large number of runs with our global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB  from 1070-2030 using bias-corrected global climate models as inputs. These runs have been downscaled by Deltares and turned into flood risk (people and GDP affected) by IVM-VU University of Amsterdam, Utrecht University and the  under different socio-economic scenarios made by PBL- Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency.

See the blog post at WRI for more information.

The key findings are:

Key findings:

  • River flooding could affect more people and cause significantly more damage by 2030, as climate change and socio-economic development accelerate.
Floods_Global_Exposure

Increased flood expore by 2013

 

 

 

  • Today, river flooding affects 21 million people worldwide and exposes $96 billion in GDP on average each year. By 2030, those numbers could grow to 54 million people and $521 billion in GDP exposed every year.
Floods_GDP_Percentage

Today’s GDP exposed to river floods

  • Top 11 countries (ranked by affected population) are India, Bangladesh, China, Vietnam, Pakistan, Indonesia, Egypt, Myanmar, Afghanistan, Nigeria and Brazil.
Floods_Top_15

Top 15 countries with greatest percentage of population exposed to river floods

See the publications supporting this research: Winsemius et al (2013) and Ward et al. (2014).

 

Virtual water trade in the Roman world

oman aqueduct of Luynes (Credit: Daniel Jolivet)

oman aqueduct of Luynes (Credit: Daniel Jolivet)

The Roman World used trade of grain (actual virtual water trade) as a means to be more resilient against climate change. At the same time, as population grew as a result of a steady supply of food, it became more dependent on trade and thus more sensitive to political or climatological disturbances of the trade network. These are the main conclusions from a study by

The Roman World used trade of grain (actual virtual water trade) as a means to be more resilient against climate change. At the same time, as population grew as a result of a steady supply of food, it became more dependent on trade and thus more sensitive to political or climatological disturbances of the trade network. These are the main conclusions from a study by Brian Dermody and coworkers from the Netherlands and the US.

The paper appeared in Hydrology and Earth System Sciences:

Dermody, B. J., van Beek, R. P. H., Meeks, E., Klein Goldewijk, K., Scheidel, W., van der Velde, Y., Bierkens, M. F. P., Wassen, M. J., and Dekker, S. C.: A virtual water network of the Roman world, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 5025-5040, doi:10.5194/hess-18-5025-2014, 2014.

See the press release of EGU!

It got quite some media attention. For instance in Smithsonian Magazine.

See us at AGU 2014!

You can follow our work during AGU 2014. Following is a  list of sessions, orals and posters that we are involved in. Maybe see you there!

Monday December 15 2014

14:10-14:25 Moscone West 2010: H13L-03 Global Depletion of Groundwater Resources: Past and Future Analyses (Marc Bierkens et al., Invited)

Tuesday December 16 2014

8:00 – 12:20 Moscone West Poster Hall: G21B-0446 Comparing Tide Gauge Observations to Regional Patterns of Sea-Level Change (1961–2003) (Aimee Slangen: et al. with Yoshi Wada)

8:00 – 12:20 Moscone West Poster: GC21B-0532 Linking Groundwater Use and Stress to Specific Crops Using the Groundwater Footprint in the Central Valley and High Plains Aquifer Systems, U.S. (Laurent Esnault et al. with Yoshi Wada, Rens van Beek and Marc Bierkens)

10:30-12:20 Moscone West 3016: GC22F The Effects of Anthropogenic Land-Use and Land-Cover Change on Local to Global Climate: Forcings and Feedbacks from the Past to the Future II (session co-convened by Yoshi Wada)

16:00 – 18:00 Moscone West 3003: GC24A Global and Regional Food and Water Security Under Increasing Socioeconomic Pressure and Changing Climate II (Session convened by Yoshi Wada)

16:30 – 16:45 Moscone West 3014: H24F-07 Simulating subsurface heterogeneity improves large-scale water resources predictions (Andreas Hartmann et al. with Yoshi Wada).

Wednesday December 17 2014

10:20 – 10:35 Moscone West 3011: H32E-01 Global Modeling of Withdrawal, Allocation and Consumptive Use of Surface Water and Groundwater Resources (Yoshi Wada et al. Invited)

13:40-18:00 Moscone West  Poster Hall: H33G Advances in Process-Based, Very High Resolution Hydrological Modeling Across Scales (Poster session co-convened by Marc Bierkens)

13:40 – 14:00 Moscone West 3014: H33K-01 Sustainability of global groundwater and surface water use: past reconstruction and future projections (Yoshi Wada et al. Invited)

14:00 – 14:15 Moscone West 3014: H33K-02 Reconstruction of Groundwater Depletion Using a Global Scale Groundwater Model (Inge de Graaf et al)

17:15 – 17:30 Moscone West 3010: H34C-06 eWaterCycle: Live Demonstration of an Operational Hyper Resolution Global Hydrological Model (Niels Drost et al. with Marc Bierkens and Edwin Sutanudjaja)

Thursday December 18 2014

8:00 – 12:20 Moscone West Poster hall: H41G-0913 Modeling Changing Morphology and Density Dependent Groundwater Flow in a Dynamic Environment: case study (Sebastian Huizer et al. with Marc Bierkens and Gu Oude-Essink)

10:20 – 10:35 Moscone West 3022: PCR-GLOBWB version 2.0: A High Resolution Integrated Global Hydrology and Water Resources Model (Edwin Sutanudjaja et al.)

11:35 – 11:50 Moscone West 3004: H42B-06 Increases in River Runoff Projected for High Mountain Asia’s River Basins during the 21st Century (Walter Immerzeel et al., Invited) —

17:20 – 17:40 Moscone West 3005: C44A-06 High-Resolution Monitoring of Himalayan Glacier Dynamics Using Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (Walter Immerzeel et al. Invited)

Friday December 19 2014

13:40 – 13:55 Moscone West 3014: H53M-01 Hyper-Resolution Global Hydrological Modelling: Rationale, Challenges and What’s Next (Marc Bierkens, Invited)

17:30 – 17:45 H54C-07 Moscone West 3011: Ensemble Evaporation Predictions from Remote Sensing in the Nile Basin (Wim Bastiaanssen et al., Invited with Yoshi Wada)

 

 

Human and climate impacts on the 21st century hydrological drought

Niko Wanders and Yoshihide Wada published a paper in the Journal of Hydrology where they analyzed which part of the expected future hydrological drouht can be attributed to climate change and which part to human water consumption.

The paper:

N. Wanders and Y. Wada, 2014.  Human and climate impacts on the 21st century hydrological drought, Journal of Hydrology (in press; online).
Their results show “a significant impact of climate change and human water use in large parts of Asia, Middle East and the Mediterranean, where the relative contribution of humans on the changed drought severity can be close to 100%”. The conclude that “the impact of human water use and reservoirs is nontrivial and can vary substantially per region and per season. Therefore, human influences should be included in projections of future drought characteristics, considering their large impact on the changing drought conditions”.

Figure 5 of their article: Impact of reservoirs and human water use on drought deficit volume compared to the pristine conditions (dDefhuman), over the period 2070–2099. Each plot gives the annual average impact derived from 5 GCMs for different RCP scenarios. Impact is calculated as a percent, where positive percentages indicate a increase in the drought deficit volume and negative percentages indicate an decrease in the drought deficit volume as a result of human water use and reservoirs.

30% of global water use is non-sustainable

Using a newly developed index and our group’s global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB Yoshi Wada and Marc Bierkens assessed the amount of groundwater consumption coming from non-renewable sources as well as the amount of surface water consumption exceeding environmental flow limits. They calculated that this non-sustainable blue water use exceeds 30% of the current water consumption and that this number will rise to 40% towards the end of the 21st century. When combined with virtual water use, the index, called the blue water sustainability index (BlWSI), can also be used to assess which part of individual products is from sustainable water.

Wada, Y.  and M.F.P.  Bierkens, 2014. Sustainability of global water use: past reconstruction and future projections. Environmental Research Letters 9, 104003 (17pp).

 

 

 

Modelling the saltwater intrusion throughout the Holocene

Joost Delsman of Deltares, with contributions from our group, modelled the Holocene development of the fresh-salt groundwater distribution along a coastal transect in the Netherlands.

To be able to understand and assess the current fresh-salt groundwater distribution and groundwater velocities one needs to go back a long time; this because of the large intertia of the system. Accurate predictions of the current  fresh-salt groundwater distribution is essential for meaningful projections of salt water intrusion under scenarios of future sea-level change, climate change and groundwater abstractions.

The reconstructed groundwater heads, chloride concentrations and groundwater origin matches very well with observations.

A movie showing the Holocene development can be found here!

The paper:

J.R. Delsman, K.R.M. Hu-a-ng, P.C. Vos, P.G.B. de Louw, G.H.P. Oude Essink, P.J. Stuyfzand, and M.F.P. Bierkens, 2014.Paleo-modeling of coastal saltwater intrusion during the Holocene: an application to the Netherlands. Hydrology and Earth System Science 18, 3891-3905.