WRI Launches Global Flood Analyzer – based on model runs with PCR-GLOBWB


The World Resources Institute has launced the Aqueduct Global Flood Analyzer v1.0. It the first-ever public analysis of current and future river-flood risks worldwide.

The Analyzer estimates current and 2030 values for potential exposed GDP, affected population and urban damage from river floods for every state, country, and major river basin in the world.

The tool is based on a large number of runs with our global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB  from 1070-2030 using bias-corrected global climate models as inputs. These runs have been downscaled by Deltares and turned into flood risk (people and GDP affected) by IVM-VU University of Amsterdam, Utrecht University and the  under different socio-economic scenarios made by PBL- Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency.

See the blog post at WRI for more information.

The key findings are:

Key findings:

  • River flooding could affect more people and cause significantly more damage by 2030, as climate change and socio-economic development accelerate.

Increased flood expore by 2013




  • Today, river flooding affects 21 million people worldwide and exposes $96 billion in GDP on average each year. By 2030, those numbers could grow to 54 million people and $521 billion in GDP exposed every year.

Today’s GDP exposed to river floods

  • Top 11 countries (ranked by affected population) are India, Bangladesh, China, Vietnam, Pakistan, Indonesia, Egypt, Myanmar, Afghanistan, Nigeria and Brazil.

Top 15 countries with greatest percentage of population exposed to river floods

See the publications supporting this research: Winsemius et al (2013) and Ward et al. (2014).


Virtual water trade in the Roman world

oman aqueduct of Luynes (Credit: Daniel Jolivet)

oman aqueduct of Luynes (Credit: Daniel Jolivet)

The Roman World used trade of grain (actual virtual water trade) as a means to be more resilient against climate change. At the same time, as population grew as a result of a steady supply of food, it became more dependent on trade and thus more sensitive to political or climatological disturbances of the trade network. These are the main conclusions from a study by

The Roman World used trade of grain (actual virtual water trade) as a means to be more resilient against climate change. At the same time, as population grew as a result of a steady supply of food, it became more dependent on trade and thus more sensitive to political or climatological disturbances of the trade network. These are the main conclusions from a study by Brian Dermody and coworkers from the Netherlands and the US.

The paper appeared in Hydrology and Earth System Sciences:

Dermody, B. J., van Beek, R. P. H., Meeks, E., Klein Goldewijk, K., Scheidel, W., van der Velde, Y., Bierkens, M. F. P., Wassen, M. J., and Dekker, S. C.: A virtual water network of the Roman world, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 5025-5040, doi:10.5194/hess-18-5025-2014, 2014.

See the press release of EGU!

It got quite some media attention. For instance in Smithsonian Magazine.

See us at AGU 2014!

You can follow our work during AGU 2014. Following is a  list of sessions, orals and posters that we are involved in. Maybe see you there!

Monday December 15 2014

14:10-14:25 Moscone West 2010: H13L-03 Global Depletion of Groundwater Resources: Past and Future Analyses (Marc Bierkens et al., Invited)

Tuesday December 16 2014

8:00 – 12:20 Moscone West Poster Hall: G21B-0446 Comparing Tide Gauge Observations to Regional Patterns of Sea-Level Change (1961–2003) (Aimee Slangen: et al. with Yoshi Wada)

8:00 – 12:20 Moscone West Poster: GC21B-0532 Linking Groundwater Use and Stress to Specific Crops Using the Groundwater Footprint in the Central Valley and High Plains Aquifer Systems, U.S. (Laurent Esnault et al. with Yoshi Wada, Rens van Beek and Marc Bierkens)

10:30-12:20 Moscone West 3016: GC22F The Effects of Anthropogenic Land-Use and Land-Cover Change on Local to Global Climate: Forcings and Feedbacks from the Past to the Future II (session co-convened by Yoshi Wada)

16:00 – 18:00 Moscone West 3003: GC24A Global and Regional Food and Water Security Under Increasing Socioeconomic Pressure and Changing Climate II (Session convened by Yoshi Wada)

16:30 – 16:45 Moscone West 3014: H24F-07 Simulating subsurface heterogeneity improves large-scale water resources predictions (Andreas Hartmann et al. with Yoshi Wada).

Wednesday December 17 2014

10:20 – 10:35 Moscone West 3011: H32E-01 Global Modeling of Withdrawal, Allocation and Consumptive Use of Surface Water and Groundwater Resources (Yoshi Wada et al. Invited)

13:40-18:00 Moscone West  Poster Hall: H33G Advances in Process-Based, Very High Resolution Hydrological Modeling Across Scales (Poster session co-convened by Marc Bierkens)

13:40 – 14:00 Moscone West 3014: H33K-01 Sustainability of global groundwater and surface water use: past reconstruction and future projections (Yoshi Wada et al. Invited)

14:00 – 14:15 Moscone West 3014: H33K-02 Reconstruction of Groundwater Depletion Using a Global Scale Groundwater Model (Inge de Graaf et al)

17:15 – 17:30 Moscone West 3010: H34C-06 eWaterCycle: Live Demonstration of an Operational Hyper Resolution Global Hydrological Model (Niels Drost et al. with Marc Bierkens and Edwin Sutanudjaja)

Thursday December 18 2014

8:00 – 12:20 Moscone West Poster hall: H41G-0913 Modeling Changing Morphology and Density Dependent Groundwater Flow in a Dynamic Environment: case study (Sebastian Huizer et al. with Marc Bierkens and Gu Oude-Essink)

10:20 – 10:35 Moscone West 3022: PCR-GLOBWB version 2.0: A High Resolution Integrated Global Hydrology and Water Resources Model (Edwin Sutanudjaja et al.)

11:35 – 11:50 Moscone West 3004: H42B-06 Increases in River Runoff Projected for High Mountain Asia’s River Basins during the 21st Century (Walter Immerzeel et al., Invited) —

17:20 – 17:40 Moscone West 3005: C44A-06 High-Resolution Monitoring of Himalayan Glacier Dynamics Using Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (Walter Immerzeel et al. Invited)

Friday December 19 2014

13:40 – 13:55 Moscone West 3014: H53M-01 Hyper-Resolution Global Hydrological Modelling: Rationale, Challenges and What’s Next (Marc Bierkens, Invited)

17:30 – 17:45 H54C-07 Moscone West 3011: Ensemble Evaporation Predictions from Remote Sensing in the Nile Basin (Wim Bastiaanssen et al., Invited with Yoshi Wada)



Human and climate impacts on the 21st century hydrological drought

Niko Wanders and Yoshihide Wada published a paper in the Journal of Hydrology where they analyzed which part of the expected future hydrological drouht can be attributed to climate change and which part to human water consumption.

The paper:

N. Wanders and Y. Wada, 2014.  Human and climate impacts on the 21st century hydrological drought, Journal of Hydrology (in press; online).
Their results show “a significant impact of climate change and human water use in large parts of Asia, Middle East and the Mediterranean, where the relative contribution of humans on the changed drought severity can be close to 100%”. The conclude that “the impact of human water use and reservoirs is nontrivial and can vary substantially per region and per season. Therefore, human influences should be included in projections of future drought characteristics, considering their large impact on the changing drought conditions”.

Figure 5 of their article: Impact of reservoirs and human water use on drought deficit volume compared to the pristine conditions (dDefhuman), over the period 2070–2099. Each plot gives the annual average impact derived from 5 GCMs for different RCP scenarios. Impact is calculated as a percent, where positive percentages indicate a increase in the drought deficit volume and negative percentages indicate an decrease in the drought deficit volume as a result of human water use and reservoirs.

30% of global water use is non-sustainable

Using a newly developed index and our group’s global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB Yoshi Wada and Marc Bierkens assessed the amount of groundwater consumption coming from non-renewable sources as well as the amount of surface water consumption exceeding environmental flow limits. They calculated that this non-sustainable blue water use exceeds 30% of the current water consumption and that this number will rise to 40% towards the end of the 21st century. When combined with virtual water use, the index, called the blue water sustainability index (BlWSI), can also be used to assess which part of individual products is from sustainable water.

Wada, Y.  and M.F.P.  Bierkens, 2014. Sustainability of global water use: past reconstruction and future projections. Environmental Research Letters 9, 104003 (17pp).




Modelling the saltwater intrusion throughout the Holocene

Joost Delsman of Deltares, with contributions from our group, modelled the Holocene development of the fresh-salt groundwater distribution along a coastal transect in the Netherlands.

To be able to understand and assess the current fresh-salt groundwater distribution and groundwater velocities one needs to go back a long time; this because of the large intertia of the system. Accurate predictions of the current  fresh-salt groundwater distribution is essential for meaningful projections of salt water intrusion under scenarios of future sea-level change, climate change and groundwater abstractions.

The reconstructed groundwater heads, chloride concentrations and groundwater origin matches very well with observations.

A movie showing the Holocene development can be found here!

The paper:

J.R. Delsman, K.R.M. Hu-a-ng, P.C. Vos, P.G.B. de Louw, G.H.P. Oude Essink, P.J. Stuyfzand, and M.F.P. Bierkens, 2014.Paleo-modeling of coastal saltwater intrusion during the Holocene: an application to the Netherlands. Hydrology and Earth System Science 18, 3891-3905.


Nature Geoscience commentary: Wedge approach to water stress

Yoshihide Wada of the Earth Surface Hydrology group co-authored a commentary in Nature Geoscience, arguing that the wedge approach proposed for evaluating carbon mitigation policies is also suitable to evaluate policies to avoid future water stress.

See the commentary at: Wada, T., T. Gleeson and L. Esnault, 2014. Wedge approach to water stress. Nature Geoscience 7, 615-617.

See also the article in Space Daily!





RS soil moisture helps to calibrate large-scale hydrological models

In addition to discharge observations, remotely sensed soil moisture estimates improve the calibration of large-scale hydrological models as shown by Niko Wanders  in a recent publication in Water Resources Research. In this paper a dual state-parameter Ensemble Kalman Filter is used to calibrate the hydrological model LISFLOOD for the Upper Danube. Calibration is done using discharge and remotely sensed soil moisture acquired by AMSR-E, SMOS, and ASCAT.

Wanders, N., M.F.P. Bierkens, S.M. Jong, A. Roo, and D. Karssenberg, 2014. The benefits of using remotely sensed soil moisture in parameter identification of large-scale hydrological models. Water Resources Research 50 (in press).




Geomorphology and dryland ecohydrology: two new publications

Our group (co-)authored two new publications:

1. A publication on automated geomorphological mapping to delineate hydrologic response units for semi-distributed catchment modeling:

E. Vannametee, L.V. Babel, M.R. Hendriks, J. Schuur, S.M. de Jong, M.F.P. Bierkens, D. Karssenberg, 2014. Semi-automated mapping of landforms using multiple point geostatistics. Geomorphology 221,  298-319.

2. A publication on dryland ecohydrology showing how semi-arid patterned ecosystems behave under changes in rainfall intensity. A surprising result is that that, for a constant annual rainfall rate, both an increase and a decrease in mean rainfall intensity can trigger desertification. Sea the publication at:

Siteur, K., M. B. Eppinga,,  D. Karssenberg, M. Baudena, M. F. P. Bierkens, and M. Rietkerk, 2014. How will increases in rainfall intensity affect semiarid ecosystems? Water Resources Research  50, 5980–6001.