This is where you’ll find us at AGU 2015!

These are our contributions at AGU 2015

H13R-01 Development of human impact modeling in global hydrology
Monday, 14 December 2015  13:40 – 13:55 Moscone West – 3011
Marc Bierkens and Yoshihide Wada

H13R-06 eWaterCycle: Recent progress in a global operational hydrological forecasting model
Monday, 14 December 2015  14:55 – 15:10 Moscone West – 3011
Nick Van De Giesen, Edwin Sutanudjaja, Marc Bierkens, Niels Drost, Rolf Hut

H13R-08 Limits to Global Groundwater Consumption
Inge de Graaf et al.
Monday, 14 December 2015  15:25 – 15:40 Moscone West – 3011

H23E-1622 The HyperHydro (H^2) experiment for comparing different large-scale models at various resolutions
Edwin Sutanudjaja et al.
Tuesday, 15 December 2015  13:40 – 18:00 Moscone South – Poster Hall

GC32B-05 Reducing water scarcity possible by 2050: Linking global assessments to policy dimensions
Yoshihide Wada et al.
Wednesday, 16 December 2015  11:20 – 11:35 Moscone West – 3001

H43J-04 Improved Large-Scale Inundation Modelling by 1D-2D Coupling and Consideration of Hydrologic and Hydrodynamic Processes – a Case Study in the Amazon
Jannis Hoch et al.
Thursday, 17 December 2015  14:25 – 14:40 Moscone West – 3020

H43E-1545 Simulating the impact of past and future land cover and climate change on the global hydrological system using PCR-GLOBWB
Joyce Bosmans et al.

Thursday, 17 December 2015  13:40 – 18:00 Moscone South – Poster Hall
G52A-08 A century-long simulation of terrestrial water storage change and its contribution to global sea-level
Marc Bierkens et al.
Friday, 18 December 2015  12:05 – 12:20 Moscone West – 2002

H53L-04 Improved Large-Scale Hydrological Modelling Through The Assimilation Of Streamflow And Downscaled Satellite Soil Moisture Observations
Patricia Lopez-Lopez et al.
Friday, 18 December 2015  14:25 – 14:40 Moscone West – 3022

And Yoshi Wada’s many co-operative papers: https://agu.confex.com/agu/fm15/meetingapp.cgi/Person/90990

And Niko Wanders (former PhD) seeding his many oats:
https://agu.confex.com/agu/fm15/meetingapp.cgi/Person/61864

Soil moisture assimilation and flood forecasting

Niko Wanders et al. published a paper in HESS investigating the improvement in flood forecasting when assimilating simultaneously different soil moisture products. See his paper at:

http://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/18/2343/2014/hess-18-2343-2014.pdf

Wanders, N., Karssenberg, D., de Roo, A., de Jong, S. M., and Bierkens, M. F. P., 2014. The suitability of remotely sensed soil moisture for improving operational flood forecasting, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2343-2357.

International Workshop on Hyper-resolution Global Hydrological Modelling

Toward global-scale models that are relevant at local scales!

On February 13/14 an international workshop was organized at Utrecht University, bringing together hydrologists from around the world that are involved in large-scale high- to hyper-resoluytion modelling of terrestrial hydrology. A succesfull workshop lead to the foundation of the HYperHydro network with three working groups:

  • WG1: Setting up a testbed for comparing different large-scale models at different resolutions.
  • WG2: Around computational challenges, including parallel computing and model component coupling.
  • WG3: With the goal to think about delivering the information needed to achieve hyper-resolution (< 1 km) globally: parameter sets, model concepts and forcing.

A splinter meeting will be organized at EGU 2014 in Vienna to further the network activities. You are welcome to join any of the groups by sending email to Marc Bierkens.

The workshop program and pdfs of the presentations can be found here!

Yoshihide Wada obtains his PhD degree with distinction!

On Friday November 8 Yoshihide Wada defended his PhD thesis entitled “Human and climate impacts on global water resources“.

He obtained his degree Cum Laude (top 3-5%) due to the exceptional quality of his work. The PhD evaluation committee consisted of Prof. Taikan Oki (Tokyo University), Dr. Dieter Gerten (PIK Potsdam), Prof. Arjen Hoekstra (University of Twente), Prof. Stefan Uhlenbrook (UNESCO-IHE and Delf University of Technology and Prof. Lex Bouwman (PBL and Utrecht University). Independent assessment reports were provided by dr. Peter Gleick (Pacific Institute) and Prof. Pavel Kabat (IIASA and Wageningen University).

His PhD, consisting of 14 chapters (12 of which are published or submitted papers), can be downloaded from:
http://igitur-archive.library.uu.nl/dissertations/2013-1105-200603/wada.pdf

Abstract
Over past decades, terrestrial water fluxes have been affected by humans at an unprecedented scale and the fingerprints that humans have left on Earth’s water resources are turning up in a diverse range of records. In this thesis, a state-of-the-art global hydrological model (GHM) and global water demand model were developed and eventually coupled to quantify and distinguish human and climate impacts on surface freshwater and groundwater resources. The thesis is composed of three major parts: Part 1. Human and climate impacts on surface freshwater resources; Part 2. Global assessment of groundwater resources; Part 3. Integrated modeling and indicators of global water resources.The thesis first explores the human and climate impacts on seasonal surface freshwater resources by forcing the global hydrological model PCR‐GLOBWB with daily meteorological fields and by calculating global monthly water demands with the effects of socio-economic and land use change. Increased water demand was found to be a decisive factor for heightened water stress in various regions, while climate variability is often a main determinant of extreme events. Over Europe, North America and Asia, severe hydrological drought conditions are driven by increasing consumptive water use rather than to be merely induced by climate variability; the magnitude of droughts intensified by 10-500%.Next, the thesis assesses global groundwater resources by estimating groundwater recharge and abstraction. Global groundwater depletion was found to triple in size over the last 50 years, and contributes ~20% to irrigation water supply. Groundwater stress was then assessed using newly developed indicators considering groundwater contribution to environment. The global groundwater footprint was found to be 3.5 times the actual area of aquifers driven by a few heavily overexploited aquifers. The aquifer stress indicator revealed that ~8% of transboundary aquifers are currently stressed due to human overexploitation. Importantly, groundwater depletion was found to be an important contributor to sea-level rise and is likely to dominate over those of other terrestrial water sources. The contribution of groundwater depletion to sea-level increased by more than ten-fold over 1900-2000, and is projected to increase further by 2050.In the final part of this thesis, an improved modeling framework that dynamically simulates daily water use per source per sector was developed. Human impacts on terrestrial water storage signals were evident in the validation with GRACE satellite observation, altering the seasonal and inter-annual variability over heavily regulated and intense irrigated basins. The newly developed model together with other six state-of-the-art GHMs was applied to simulate future irrigation water demand using the latest CMIP5 climate projections. The increase in irrigation demand varies substantially depending on the degree of global warming and associated regional precipitation changes. GHM dominates the uncertainty throughout the century, but GCM uncertainty substantially increases from the mid-century. To comprehensively assess global water resources, an improved approach was introduced. The Green Water Stress Index is capable of reproducing varying degrees of green water stress conditions, reflecting a multi-decadal climate variability. The Blue Water Sustainability Index revealed an increasing trend of water consumed from nonsustainable surface water and groundwater resources (~30%) worldwide.