and the Dutch press release on the UU website!
We published a paper in Nature projecting that under a 1.5 degree warming, as agreed upon under the Paris Agreement, the glaciers in High Mountain Asia will have lost about 35% of their mass. Under more realistic climate scenarios the mass loss could add up to 65%, with dire consequences for people that depend on the melt water runoff of the Asian rivers.
A full-text access to a view-only version of our paper can be found with the following link!
Also see the News and Views about our paper by Graham Cogley
In a new study by Ted Veldkamp (VU Amsterdam), Yoshi Wada et al. that appeared in Nature Communications it is shown, by using a multi-model ensemble from ISI-MIP 2a (PCR-GLOBWB among these), that human interventions in the global water system may decrease water scarcity upstream while aggravating water scarcity downstream.
The link to the paper can be found here!
We are happy to announce that Inge de Graaf published a paper about our newly-developed global two-layer transient groundwater model. This version is coupled one-way with the global hydrology and water resources model PCR-GLOBWB. A newer version also has a two-way (at time-step) coupling with PCR-GLOBWB and will be reported on shortly. You can find the paper here!
Furthermore, Yoshihide Wada (vice-director Water at IIASA and senior research associate at UU) and colleagues published a new paper in Nature Geoscience in which they show from analyses of satellite and local well data spanning the past decade that long-term changes in monsoon precipitation are driving groundwater storage variability in most parts of India either directly by changing recharge or indirectly by changing abstraction.
Marc Bierkens has been elected Fellow of the American Geophysical Union.
Citation: For contributions in understanding hydrological
processes across scales and the modeling
and analysis of climate change and human water use
on global groundwater stocks.
He will be honored at the current AGU General assembly.
Worldwide economic losses from river flooding could increase 20-fold by the end of the 21st century if no further actions on flood risk reduction are taken. Over 70% of this increase can be attributed to economic growth in flood prone areas
This follows from a recent study by a Dutch consortium that includes our research group.
See the study in Nature Climate Change!
Marc Bierkens contributed the paper entitled “Global hydrology 2015: state, trends and directions” to the 50th anniversary of Water Resources Research special collection issue. The papers in this issue are freely downloadable!
Inge de Graaf , PhD student in our group has published a paper about a global 6-arcminute one-layer groundwater model. The model is made in MODFLOW and is forced with recharge and surface water levels from our global hydrological model. In this publication a steady state global groundwater depth map has been made, but in subsequent work Inge will provide an updated 5-arcminute two-layer version and transient runs, including the effects of groundwater abstractions.
The paper was highlighted at the EGU website:
A nice picture of the global groundwater table:
The World Resources Institute has launced the Aqueduct Global Flood Analyzer v1.0. It the first-ever public analysis of current and future river-flood risks worldwide.
The Analyzer estimates current and 2030 values for potential exposed GDP, affected population and urban damage from river floods for every state, country, and major river basin in the world.
The tool is based on a large number of runs with our global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB from 1070-2030 using bias-corrected global climate models as inputs. These runs have been downscaled by Deltares and turned into flood risk (people and GDP affected) by IVM-VU University of Amsterdam, Utrecht University and the under different socio-economic scenarios made by PBL- Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency.
See the blog post at WRI for more information.
The key findings are:
- River flooding could affect more people and cause significantly more damage by 2030, as climate change and socio-economic development accelerate.
- Today, river flooding affects 21 million people worldwide and exposes $96 billion in GDP on average each year. By 2030, those numbers could grow to 54 million people and $521 billion in GDP exposed every year.
- Top 11 countries (ranked by affected population) are India, Bangladesh, China, Vietnam, Pakistan, Indonesia, Egypt, Myanmar, Afghanistan, Nigeria and Brazil.