Inge de Graaf , PhD student in our group has published a paper about a global 6-arcminute one-layer groundwater model. The model is made in MODFLOW and is forced with recharge and surface water levels from our global hydrological model. In this publication a steady state global groundwater depth map has been made, but in subsequent work Inge will provide an updated 5-arcminute two-layer version and transient runs, including the effects of groundwater abstractions.
DHydrology Earth System Science, 19, 823-837.
The paper was highlighted at the EGU website:
A nice picture of the global groundwater table:
Long-term average groundwater depth (m below surface)
The World Resources Institute has launced the Aqueduct Global Flood Analyzer v1.0. It the first-ever public analysis of current and future river-flood risks worldwide.
The Analyzer estimates current and 2030 values for potential exposed GDP, affected population and urban damage from river floods for every state, country, and major river basin in the world.
The tool is based on a large number of runs with our global hydrological model PCR-GLOBWB from 1070-2030 using bias-corrected global climate models as inputs. These runs have been downscaled by Deltares and turned into flood risk (people and GDP affected) by IVM-VU University of Amsterdam, Utrecht University and the under different socio-economic scenarios made by PBL- Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency.
See the blog post at WRI for more information.
The key findings are:
- River flooding could affect more people and cause significantly more damage by 2030, as climate change and socio-economic development accelerate.
Increased flood expore by 2013
- Today, river flooding affects 21 million people worldwide and exposes $96 billion in GDP on average each year. By 2030, those numbers could grow to 54 million people and $521 billion in GDP exposed every year.
Today’s GDP exposed to river floods
- Top 11 countries (ranked by affected population) are India, Bangladesh, China, Vietnam, Pakistan, Indonesia, Egypt, Myanmar, Afghanistan, Nigeria and Brazil.
Top 15 countries with greatest percentage of population exposed to river floods
See the publications supporting this research: Winsemius et al (2013) and Ward et al. (2014).