PNAS ISI-MIP papers are on line!

Since December 16,  the papers belonginging to the The Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP) are on line with the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences journal. They are part of the special issue entitled: Global Climate Impacts: A Cross-Sector, Multi-Model Assessment Special Feature.

Members (Yoshi Wada) and former members (Dominik Wisser) of our group are co-authors of the following papers:

Jacob Schewe, Jens Heinke, Dieter Gerten, Ingjerd Haddeland, Nigel W. Arnell, Douglas B. Clark, Rutger Dankers, Stephanie Eisner, Balázs M. Fekete, Felipe J. Colón-González, Simon N. Gosling, Hyungjun Kim, Xingcai Liu, Yoshimitsu Masaki, Felix T. Portmann, Yusuke Satoh, Tobias Stacke, Qiuhong Tang, Yoshihide Wada, Dominik Wisser, Torsten Albrecht, Katja Frieler, Franziska Piontek, Lila Warszawski, and Pavel Kabat, 2014. Multimodel assessment of water scarcity under climate change.  PNAS 2013 ; published ahead of print December 16, 2013, doi:10.1073/pnas.1222460110.

Joshua Elliott, Delphine Deryng, Christoph Müller, Katja Frieler, Markus Konzmann, Dieter Gerten, Michael Glotter, Martina Flörke, Yoshihide Wada, Neil Best, Stephanie Eisner, Balázs M. Fekete, Christian Folberth, Ian Foster, Simon N. Gosling, Ingjerd Haddeland, Nikolay Khabarov, Fulco Ludwig, Yoshimitsu Masaki, Stefan Olin, Cynthia Rosenzweig, Alex C. Ruane, Yusuke Satoh, Erwin Schmid, Tobias Stacke, Qiuhong Tang, and Dominik Wisser, 2014. Constraints and potentials of future irrigation water availability on agricultural production under climate change.  PNAS 2013 ; published ahead of print December 16, 2013, doi:10.1073/pnas.1222474110.

Christel Prudhomme, Ignazio Giuntoli, Emma L. Robinson, Douglas B. Clark, Nigel W. Arnell, Rutger Dankers, Balázs M. Fekete, Wietse Franssen, Dieter Gerten, Simon N. Gosling, Stefan Hagemann, David M. Hannah, Hyungjun Kim, Yoshimitsu Masaki, Yusuke Satoh, Tobias Stacke, Yoshihide Wada, and Dominik Wisser, 2014. Hydrological droughts in the 21st century, hotspots and uncertainties from a global multimodel ensemble experiment. PNAS 2013 ; published ahead of print December 16, 2013, doi:10.1073/pnas.1222473110.

Ingjerd Haddeland, Jens Heinke, Hester Biemans, Stephanie Eisner, Martina Flörke, Naota Hanasaki, Markus Konzmann, Fulco Ludwig, Yoshimitsu Masaki, Jacob Schewe, Tobias Stacke, Zachary D. Tessler, Yoshihide Wada, and Dominik Wisser, 2014. Global water resources affected by human interventions and climate change . PNAS 2013 ; published ahead of print December 16, 2013, doi:10.1073/pnas.1222475110.

Rutger Dankers, Nigel W. Arnell, Douglas B. Clark, Pete D. Falloon, Balázs M. Fekete, Simon N. Gosling, Jens Heinke, Hyungjun Kim, Yoshimitsu Masaki, Yusuke Satoh, Tobias Stacke, Yoshihide Wada, and Dominik Wisser, 2014. First look at changes in flood hazard in the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project ensemble.  PNAS 2013 ; published ahead of print December 16, 2013, doi:10.1073/pnas.1302078110.

On top of that a paper appeared in Earth System Dynamics from the same inter-comparison project:

Davie, J. C. S., Falloon, P. D., Kahana, R., Dankers, R., Betts, R., Portmann, F. T., Wisser, D., Clark, D. B., Ito, A., Masaki, Y., Nishina, K., Fekete, B., Tessler, Z., Wada, Y., Liu, X., Tang, Q., Hagemann, S., Stacke, T., Pavlick, R., Schaphoff, S., Gosling, S. N., Franssen, W., and Arnell, N., 2013.  Comparing projections of future changes in runoff from hydrological and biome models in ISI-MIP, Earth System Dynamics 4, 359-374.

Publication: global flood risk mapping

Lead by dr. Philip Ward of VU University Amsterdam and in co-operation with the research institutes Deltares and PBL (Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency), members of our group published the first global map of fluvial flood risk (both hazard as well as costs) for a range of return periods:

Ward, Ph.J. B. Jongman, F. Sperna Weiland, A. Bouwman, L.P.H. van Beek, M.F.P. Bierkens, W. Ligtvoet and H.C. Winsemius, 2013. Assessing flood risk at the global scale: model setup, results, and sensitivity. Environmental Research Letters 8 (4), 044019 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/8/4/044019.

 

 

Yoshihide Wada obtains his PhD degree with distinction!

On Friday November 8 Yoshihide Wada defended his PhD thesis entitled “Human and climate impacts on global water resources“.

He obtained his degree Cum Laude (top 3-5%) due to the exceptional quality of his work. The PhD evaluation committee consisted of Prof. Taikan Oki (Tokyo University), Dr. Dieter Gerten (PIK Potsdam), Prof. Arjen Hoekstra (University of Twente), Prof. Stefan Uhlenbrook (UNESCO-IHE and Delf University of Technology and Prof. Lex Bouwman (PBL and Utrecht University). Independent assessment reports were provided by dr. Peter Gleick (Pacific Institute) and Prof. Pavel Kabat (IIASA and Wageningen University).

His PhD, consisting of 14 chapters (12 of which are published or submitted papers), can be downloaded from:
http://igitur-archive.library.uu.nl/dissertations/2013-1105-200603/wada.pdf

Abstract
Over past decades, terrestrial water fluxes have been affected by humans at an unprecedented scale and the fingerprints that humans have left on Earth’s water resources are turning up in a diverse range of records. In this thesis, a state-of-the-art global hydrological model (GHM) and global water demand model were developed and eventually coupled to quantify and distinguish human and climate impacts on surface freshwater and groundwater resources. The thesis is composed of three major parts: Part 1. Human and climate impacts on surface freshwater resources; Part 2. Global assessment of groundwater resources; Part 3. Integrated modeling and indicators of global water resources.The thesis first explores the human and climate impacts on seasonal surface freshwater resources by forcing the global hydrological model PCR‐GLOBWB with daily meteorological fields and by calculating global monthly water demands with the effects of socio-economic and land use change. Increased water demand was found to be a decisive factor for heightened water stress in various regions, while climate variability is often a main determinant of extreme events. Over Europe, North America and Asia, severe hydrological drought conditions are driven by increasing consumptive water use rather than to be merely induced by climate variability; the magnitude of droughts intensified by 10-500%.Next, the thesis assesses global groundwater resources by estimating groundwater recharge and abstraction. Global groundwater depletion was found to triple in size over the last 50 years, and contributes ~20% to irrigation water supply. Groundwater stress was then assessed using newly developed indicators considering groundwater contribution to environment. The global groundwater footprint was found to be 3.5 times the actual area of aquifers driven by a few heavily overexploited aquifers. The aquifer stress indicator revealed that ~8% of transboundary aquifers are currently stressed due to human overexploitation. Importantly, groundwater depletion was found to be an important contributor to sea-level rise and is likely to dominate over those of other terrestrial water sources. The contribution of groundwater depletion to sea-level increased by more than ten-fold over 1900-2000, and is projected to increase further by 2050.In the final part of this thesis, an improved modeling framework that dynamically simulates daily water use per source per sector was developed. Human impacts on terrestrial water storage signals were evident in the validation with GRACE satellite observation, altering the seasonal and inter-annual variability over heavily regulated and intense irrigated basins. The newly developed model together with other six state-of-the-art GHMs was applied to simulate future irrigation water demand using the latest CMIP5 climate projections. The increase in irrigation demand varies substantially depending on the degree of global warming and associated regional precipitation changes. GHM dominates the uncertainty throughout the century, but GCM uncertainty substantially increases from the mid-century. To comprehensively assess global water resources, an improved approach was introduced. The Green Water Stress Index is capable of reproducing varying degrees of green water stress conditions, reflecting a multi-decadal climate variability. The Blue Water Sustainability Index revealed an increasing trend of water consumed from nonsustainable surface water and groundwater resources (~30%) worldwide.

 

Our people at AGU Fall Meeting 2013

Brian, Edwin, Inge, Niko and Yoshi are at the Fall meeting of the American Geophysical Union at San Francisco from December 8 to december 14.

These are their talks and posters:

Monday December 9

Poster Session: 8:00 AM – 12:20 PM; Hall A-C (Moscone South)

GC11A-0965. Virtual water management in the Roman world

Brian Dermody; Ludovicus P. Van Beek; Elijah Meeks; Kees Klein Goldewijk; Marc F. Bierkens; Walter Scheidel; Martin J. Wassen; Ype Van der Velde; Stefan C. Dekker

Poster Session 8:00 AM – 12:20 PM; Hall A-C (Moscone South)

GC11A-0978. Assessing the impacts of Three Gorges Dam on lake inundation areas across the downstream Yangtze floodplain

Jida Wang; Yongwei Sheng; Yoshihide Wada

Poster Session 8:00 AM – 12:20 PM; Hall A-C (Moscone South)

GC11C-1003. AN ADAPTATION DILEMMA CAUSED BY IMPACTS-MODELING UNCERTAINTY

Katja Frieler; Christoph Müller; Joshua W. Elliott; Jens Heinke; Almut Arneth; Marc F. Bierkens; Philippe Ciais; Douglas H. Clark; Delphine Deryng; Petra M. Doll; Pete Falloon; Balazs M. Fekete; Christian Folberth; Andrew D. Friend; Simon N. Gosling; Ingjerd Haddeland; Nikolay Khabarov; Marc R. Lomas; Yoshimitsu Masaki; Kazuya Nishina; Kathleen Neumann; Taikan Oki; Ryan Pavlick; Alexander C. Ruane; Erwin Schmid; Christoph Schmitz; Tobias Stacke; Elke Stehfest; Qiuhong Tang; Dominik Wisser

Oral Session 8:00 AM – 10:00 AM; 3003 (Moscone West)

8:45 AM – 9:00 AM

GC11E-04. Multi-model projections and uncertainties of irrigation water demand under climate change (Invited)

Yoshihide Wada; Dominik Wisser; Stephanie Eisner; Martina Flörke; Dieter Gerten; Ingjerd Haddeland; Naota Hanasaki; Yoshimitsu Masaki; Felix T. Portmann; Tobias Stacke; Zachary D. Tessler; Jacob Schewe

Oral Session 8:00 AM – 10:00 AM; 3003 (Moscone West)

9:30 AM – 9:45 AM

GC11E-07. Multi-model assessment of water scarcity under climate change

Jacob Schewe; Jens Heinke; Dieter Gerten; Ingjerd Haddeland; Nigel W. Arnell; Douglas B. Clark; Rutger Dankers; Stephanie Eisner; Balazs M. Fekete; Felipe J. Colon-Gonzalez; Simon N. Gosling; Hyungjun KIM; Xingcai Liu; Yoshimitsu Masaki; Felix T. Portmann; Yusuke Satoh; Tobias Stacke; Qiuhong Tang; Yoshihide Wada; Dominik Wisser; torsten albrecht; Katja Frieler; Franziska Piontek; Lila Warszawski; Pavel Kabat

Oral Session 1:40 PM – 3:40 PM; 3014 (Moscone West)

3:12 PM – 3:25 PM

H13O-07. A high resolution global scale groundwater model

Inge E. de Graaf; Edwin Sutanudjaja; Ludovicus P. Van Beek; Marc F. Bierkens

 

Tuesday December 10

Poster Session 1:40 PM – 6:00 PM; Hall A-C (Moscone South)

H23E-1308. eWaterCycle: Developing a hyper resolution global hydrological model

Niels Drost; Edwin Sutanudjaja; Rolf Hut; Susan C. Steele-Dunne; Kor de Jong; Ludovicus P. Van Beek; Derek Karssenberg; Marc F. Bierkens; Nick Van De Giesen

Oral session 1:40 PM – 3:40 PM; 3003 (Moscone West)

1:55 PM – 2:10 PM

GC23F-02. Multimodel Estimate of Global Water Resources Affected by Human Interventions and Climate Change

Ingjerd Haddeland; Hester Biemans; Martina Flörke; Naota Hanasaki; Tobias Stacke; Zachary D. Tessler; Yoshihide Wada

Oral Session 4:00 PM – 6:00 PM; 3020 (Moscone West)

4:45 PM – 5:00 PM

H24E-04. The benefits of using remotely sensed soil moisture in parameter identification of large-scale hydrological models

Derek Karssenberg; Niko Wanders; Ad de Roo; Steven de Jong; Marc F. Bierkens

 

Wednesday  December 11

Poster Session 8:00 AM – 12:20 PM; Hall A-C (Moscone South)

H31H-1303. Global Scale, Local Relevance: Hydrological Modeling Using PCR-GLOBWB-2.0 At Five Minute Resolution Using Multimodel Climate Change Scenarios

Menno W. Straatsma; Edwin Sutanudjaja; Ludovicus P. Van Beek

Poster Session 1:40 PM – 6:00 PM; Hall A-C (Moscone South)

H33B-1352. The PCR-GLOBWB global hydrological reanalysis product

Marc F. Bierkens; Niko Wanders; Edwin Sutanudjaja; Ludovicus P. Van Beek

 

Thursday December 12

Oral session 4:00 PM – 6:00 PM; 3020 (Moscone West)

5:45 PM – 6:00 PM

H44E-08. The potential of remotely sensed soil moisture for operational flood forecasting

Niko Wanders; Derek Karssenberg; Ad de Roo; Steven de Jong; Marc F. Bierkens

Oral Session 4:00 PM – 6:00 PM; 3003 (Moscone West)

5:15 PM – 5:30 PM

GC44C-05. Global trends in future hydrological drought

Henny Van Lanen; Niko Wanders; Yoshihide Wada

 

Friday December 13           

Poster Session 8:00 AM – 12:20 PM; Hall A-C (Moscone South)

H51N-1385. Developing a high resolution groundwater model for Indonesia

Edwin Sutanudjaja; Inge E. de Graaf; Koko Alberti; Ludovicus P. Van Beek; Marc F. Bierkens

Oral session 8:00 AM – 10:00 AM; 3022 (Moscone West)

8:15 AM – 8:30 AM

H51P-02. Global River Flood Risk in a Changing World (Invited)

Hessel Winsemius; Philip Ward; Arno Bouwman; Ludovicus P. Van Beek; Brenden Jongman; Elke Stehfest; Marc F. Bierkens; Jeroen Aerts; Willem Ligtvoet; Jaap Kwadijk; Frederiek Sperna Weiland

Oral Session 1:40 PM – 3:40 PM; 3022 (Moscone West)

3:10 PM – 3:25 PM

H53J-07. Assessment of transboundary aquifers of the world—vulnerability arising from human water use (Invited)

Yoshihide Wada; Lena Heinrich

Oral Session 1:40 PM – 3:40 PM; 3022 (Moscone West)

3:25 PM – 3:40 PM

H53J-08. Assessing regional groundwater stress for nations using multiple data sources with the groundwater footprint (Invited)

Thomas P. Gleeson; Yoshihide Wada

Poster Session 8:00 AM – 12:20 PM; Hall A-C (Moscone South)

PP51A-1908. The Tropical Pacific: A changeable communicator or Holocene solar forcing

Brian Dermody; Ype Van der Velde; Marc F. Bierkens; Hugo J. Boer, De; Timme Donders; Stefan C. Dekker; Martin J. Wassen; Sybren S. Drijfhout